As the 2027 NBA season approaches, betting markets and front offices are watching a familiar voting mystery: who will claim the league’s Most Improved Player award? A surging market favorite, the Houston Rockets’ guard-forward Amen Thompson, has drawn fresh attention for the strides he could make on offense this year—changes that would have immediate implications for Houston’s standing in a crowded Western Conference.
Amen Thompson — Houston Rockets
On price-driven platforms, Thompson sits near the top of the list of contenders. Kalshi’s market currently reflects about a 52% probability for him to win MIP, with “Yes” contracts trading in the low twenties of a dollar—an indicator that bettors and traders see a strong chance of a breakout season.
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Known chiefly for his explosiveness and defensive versatility, Thompson has turned heads with highlight-reel plays and switchable defense since joining the league. Yet what would push him from a defensive standout to the Most Improved Player is a pronounced offensive evolution: more consistent scoring, better spacing and a reliable perimeter stroke.
That development isn’t hypothetical. This offseason he spent time refining his shot mechanics under veteran shooting coach Chip Engelland, aiming to convert athleticism into sustained scoring production. If Thompson can transform into a primary scoring option and regularly threaten from distance, the Rockets’ attack changes—and so does his award case.
- What to watch early in the season: shooting percentage from three, usage rate, and plays per game as a pick-and-roll handler.
- Key threshold: becoming a consistent 20+ point contributor will move him from contender to frontrunner.
- Defensive continuity: maintaining his current defensive impact while increasing offense is crucial; MIP voters reward two-way leaps.
- Market signal: Kalshi’s pricing suggests bettors expect measurable statistical gains rather than a one-off hot streak.
Counting the vote for Most Improved Player is as much an exercise in narrative as in numbers. The award routinely favors players who pair statistical gains with a clearer role or a higher-profile team outcome. For Thompson, that means turning offseason work into tangible scoring results that reshape how opponents game-plan against the Rockets.
How this plays out will matter beyond an individual accolade. A genuine offensive jump by Thompson would deepen Houston’s rotation and could tilt close Western matchups; conversely, a slow start would cool both his market odds and the team’s projection. Early-season performance will therefore set the tone for bookmakers, voters and fans alike.
