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The U.S. Open returns to Shinnecock Hills this week, and with it comes the familiar mix of favorites and longshots who could finally break through for a first major. Recent results — including dramatic late surges and improbable putts — remind us that major championships can crown unexpected winners, so form and course fit matter now more than ever.
Instead of ranking the usual names by world standing, I focused on players who look best positioned to claim a maiden major at Shinnecock: those combining recent momentum with skills that map to the course’s demands. I also excluded a few obvious candidates whose recent play has been patchy; being highly ranked doesn’t guarantee suitability for this particular week.
Why Shinnecock changes the calculus
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Shinnecock Hills is a textbook U.S. Open setup: narrow fairways, penal rough, firm, fast greens and a premium on precise iron play and short-game resilience. Off-the-tee length helps, but accuracy and the ability to manage tense par putts are usually more decisive.
That profile elevates certain skill sets: controlled ball-striking, scrambling under pressure, and a steadier putting stroke on tricky surfaces. Players who’ve shown they can limit big numbers and piece together low rounds when the course allows deserve extra attention.
Top picks to win their first major at Shinnecock
Below are five players who, in my view, combine the right mix of recent form and course compatibility to end their major drought this week.
- Viktor Hovland — Exceptional ball-striking and a calm temperament give him a clear pathway at a course that punishes loose tee shots. He’s shown an ability to convert good approaches into birdie opportunities and to grind when conditions are harsh.
- Xander Schauffele — One of the most consistent competitors on tour, Schauffele’s short-game and scrambling could save crucial pars at Shinnecock. He handles pressure well and often finds birdie looks when the rare scoring window appears.
- Patrick Cantlay — Cantlay’s course management and iron precision fit the U.S. Open mold; when he’s in form he avoids big numbers and posts low rounds through smart decision-making rather than risky aggression.
- Tony Finau — His power keeps him in contention, but it’s Finau’s improving wedge play and renewed short-game touch that make him a legitimate threat this week, especially if the greens play receptive in parts.
- Max Homa — A confident competitor who often elevates his game in big events, Homa’s approach play and temperament suit a week where patience and timing matter as much as raw distance.
Notably absent from this list is Cameron Young. While his skill set — particularly bogey avoidance and scrambling — is well suited to a hard U.S. Open test, his recent results have been inconsistent enough to place other names ahead of him in a short-term forecast.
Traits that matter this week
- Precision off the tee: Avoiding heavy rough is more valuable than out-driving a field.
- Iron accuracy: Hitting greens in regulation opens up the chance to score when the course allows.
- Short-game resilience: Saving par from tough lies will separate contenders from pretenders.
- Composure: Majors often turn on a single hole; players who stay steady under pressure stand out.
Shinnecock has a habit of humbling favorites and elevating the composed, well-rounded player. Expect the leaderboard to tighten into Sunday and keep an eye on the names above — they each have the tools to turn a strong week into a career-defining breakthrough.
