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A new AP-NORC analysis finds that independent voters — especially those without a college degree — have turned markedly less favorable toward President Trump since he returned to the White House. The shift, concentrated among noncollege independents, Hispanic independents and younger voters, could alter the political map as Republicans approach the next round of midterm contests.
The researchers combined nearly two dozen national polls taken from July 2024 through April 2026 to track opinion across distinct stretches of Trump’s second term, including the transition period after the election, his first 100 days, the passage of major legislation in mid-2025, last fall’s government shutdown and the early phases of the conflict with Iran.
Where the change is largest
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Support among independents without a college degree has shown the steepest decline. Around the 2024 campaign, roughly half of these voters viewed the president favorably; by early 2026 that approval had dropped to about one-quarter. College-educated independents started from a lower baseline and fell only slightly, leaving both groups at similar, muted levels of support today.
Sean Collins, a NORC research associate involved in the analysis, called the drop among noncollege independents striking because that cohort has historically been a dependable component of Trump’s base.
Gains from 2024 slipping away
Trump attracted a larger share of independents in 2024 than in 2020 — about 42% versus 37% — in part by making inroads with demographic groups that often lean Democratic. The new polling suggests many of those gains have weakened.
Hispanic independents, who were roughly split at the ballot box in 2024 and showed relatively high favorable ratings around the election, registered sharp falls during the administration’s first year. At one point during last fall’s shutdown their approval dropped into the teens before settling near the low-to-mid 20s by spring 2026.
Younger independents also moved away from the president, while those aged 60 and older largely held steady. Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC, said the pattern shows independents reacting to unfolding events rather than holding fixed partisan loyalties.
- No-college independents: Favorable views dropped from roughly half during the campaign to about one-quarter in early 2026.
- College-educated independents: Started lower and fell modestly, now comparable to noncollege peers.
- Hispanic independents: Fell from near-even or favorable ratings to the mid-20s, with a dip into the teens during the shutdown.
- Younger voters: Showed growing disaffection; older independents remained more constant.
Economy and pocketbook pressure
Economic concerns are central to the decline. Polling indicates inflation and the rising cost of essentials remain top worries for many independents who supported Trump in 2024.
Only about three in ten independents now approve of the president’s handling of the economy, and roughly 12% approve of his approach to the cost of living — numbers that mirror broader negative views of the national economy. Independent assessments of the country’s financial health strongly correlate with their view of the president: most who call the economy poor also view the president unfavorably.
Persistent energy prices tied to international tensions have kept pressure on household budgets, and recent surveys found roughly three in ten independents expressing high levels of concern about affording groceries and gas.
What this means going forward
Because independents are often the swing element in midterm turnout, sustained erosion in their support could have consequences for both parties. The analysis suggests that gains Trump achieved among unaffiliated voters in 2024 may not be durable if economic anxiety and high-profile government conflicts continue to shape perceptions.
NorC’s blocked analysis of 21 polls, representing 4,836 self-identified independents, grouped responses into five time windows to show how views moved at key moments. Independents in this study are respondents who do not identify with or lean toward either major party.
While partisan opinions (Democrats and Republicans) have remained comparatively stable through the period studied, the ongoing movement among independents — particularly those without college degrees — remains the central dynamic to watch as the political calendar advances.
